For months, grocery shoppers have noticed produce prices creeping higher, but experts warn the situation is about to get much worse.
Agricultural economists caution that the U.S. is facing a “tsunami” of food price hikes, with some fruits and vegetables potentially doubling in cost. From surging wholesale prices to crippling labor shortages, climate pressures, and new tariffs, the warning signs are flashing red.
Here’s a rundown of what’s driving the spike and why it could hit consumers harder in the months ahead.
Wholesale Vegetable Prices Surge Nearly 40%
In July 2025, wholesale vegetable prices rose almost 40% compared to the same month in 2024, marking the steepest single-month summer increase since 1947. This wholesale spike reflects what grocers pay before produce reaches store shelves, suggesting that higher retail prices are imminent. Economists warn that if the trend holds, consumers could see staple vegetables like lettuce, cucumbers, and peppers cost nearly twice as much at checkout.
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Are Driving Scarcity
Erratic weather conditions have severely disrupted growing seasons across key regions. California and Florida, two of the nation’s top produce suppliers, faced prolonged droughts, heat waves, and flooding. Globally, extreme weather linked to climate change is increasingly tied to crop failures, pushing food costs higher worldwide. A recent study published in Environmental Research Letters noted that climate-driven disasters between 2022 and 2024 had a direct role in soaring food prices.
U.S. Agriculture Faces Its Worst Labor Shortage in 20 Years
Since March 2025, the American agricultural sector has lost an estimated 155,000 workers, the steepest labor shortage in two decades. Stricter immigration enforcement and fewer seasonal workers have left many farms understaffed during peak harvest times. To cope, producers are turning to costly H-2A visas, which raise production expenses and filter down into consumer prices. Labor instability remains one of the most pressing challenges threatening food affordability.
Tariffs on Imports Are Adding Fuel to the Fire
Trade tensions are compounding the issue. Beginning July 14, 2025, the U.S. imposed a 21% tariff on Mexican tomatoes—a crop Americans rely on heavily. Additional tariffs on imported fruits, vegetables, and juices, including coffee and orange juice, are also expected to hit consumers directly. Economists warn that tariffs act like hidden taxes, inflating the cost of foods that already face supply strain.
Inflationary Pressures Haven’t Fully Eased
While overall U.S. inflation has cooled compared to its peak in 2022, food costs remain stubbornly high. Between 2020 and 2024, the Consumer Price Index for food rose 23.6%. Although growth slowed in 2023 and 2024, the fresh surge in produce prices risks reigniting food inflation just as households were beginning to catch a break. For families already stretched thin, these increases could feel especially punishing.
Global Supply Chains Remain Fragile
The ripple effects of geopolitical and trade tensions are still felt across global supply chains. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted grain markets in 2022, while current tariffs and logistical bottlenecks are straining fruit and vegetable imports. With the U.S. heavily reliant on foreign suppliers for crops like avocados, bananas, and tomatoes, disruptions abroad can quickly translate into sticker shock at American supermarkets.
Consumers Are Already Struggling With Sticker Shock
According to CNBC, more than half of Americans say they’ve noticed food costs eating into their household budgets. Many report buying fewer fresh fruits and vegetables in favor of cheaper, shelf-stable goods. If produce prices double as predicted, low- and middle-income families may be forced to cut back further, worsening nutrition gaps and dietary health disparities across the country.
Economists Warn This Is Only the Beginning
Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School, described the situation as “like when you see the tsunami coming in.” The combination of tariffs, weather extremes, labor shortages, and inflation could make the current spike just the first wave. Other economists echo the warning, emphasizing that without meaningful policy responses, food price volatility may become the new normal for U.S. households.
A Looming Food Cost Crisis
Agricultural experts agree that the U.S. food system is entering a period of unprecedented strain. With wholesale vegetable prices already soaring, tariffs squeezing imports, and climate change amplifying risks, consumers may soon see produce prices climb to levels not seen in decades. Economists warn that unless these pressures are addressed, shoppers should brace for higher bills at the checkout line and potentially a permanent shift in how much fresh food truly costs.
