Proposed 107% Tariff on Italian Pasta Threatens 13 Major Brands in U.S. Stores

The pasta aisle, normally one of the most predictable corners of the grocery store, may soon look very different. A proposed import tariff has sparked concern among importers, chefs, and shoppers who rely on Italian-made staples for weeknight dinners and celebrations alike. As Washington reviews the steepest duties ever considered for the category, the future of familiar brands is suddenly in question.

Rising Tensions Over Imported Pasta

The U.S. Commerce Department’s preliminary decision calls for a 92% antidumping duty on 13 major Italian pasta exporters. Combined with an existing 15% tariff on EU goods, the total cost would climb to 107%. Officials say the move follows a federal probe into whether certain brands sold products in the U.S. below market value.

Why the Tariff Exists

American pasta makers have long accused Italian competitors of undercutting prices, triggering years of federal oversight. The Commerce Department’s latest review found that two Italian companies failed to provide required data, leading regulators to apply the steep duties across all 13 exporters. The inquiry itself dates back to anti-dumping investigations first launched in 1996.

The Brands at Risk

If the tariffs move forward, all 13 Italian exporters named in the Commerce Department’s review could face steep costs that reshape what Americans find in the pasta aisle.

The list includes well-known names like Barilla, La Molisana, Garofalo, Rummo, Pastificio Liguori, and Agritalia, along with De Cecco, F. Divella, Pastificio Di Martino, Zara, Miscele Luciani, Delverde, and Mura.

Some of these companies have warned they may withdraw products entirely, while others say that a 107% tariff would make U.S. prices so high that demand could collapse.

What This Means for Shoppers

Food analysts warn that consumers could see pasta aisles “half empty” as importers evaluate whether they can continue selling to the U.S. market. Prices could double on pastas that remain, with some brands predicting retail jumps from $3.99 to as high as $7.99 per box. For customers, the shift could mean fewer choices and higher bills for everyday meals.

How Importers Are Responding

Italian producers argue they are being penalized unfairly, especially those who submitted full documentation but are now affected by others’ noncompliance. Some companies say they will absorb costs temporarily; others are preparing for rapid changes in distribution if duties take effect. Trade groups warn that years of investment in U.S. supply chains could be undone.

Brands Could Vanish in U.S. Stores

While the possibility of higher prices has drawn attention, the deeper concern is that the 13 targeted companies may largely disappear from U.S. shelves. Industry groups in Italy warn that exports could be “virtually wiped out,” erasing decades of market growth. The threat has shocked American retailers who rely heavily on Italian imports to sustain pasta sales.

How Restaurants Are Adapting

Chefs who depend on imported pasta are already shifting strategy. One New York restaurateur told reporters he stopped buying Italian pasta entirely after the tariff announcement, choosing to make pasta in-house to avoid doubling menu prices. While this approach works for small operations, larger chains may face more difficult adjustments.

Possible Substitutes and Workarounds

Not all Italian brands would vanish from stores; some manufacture certain products in the U.S. Barilla, for instance, produces a portion of its pasta in New York, which could cushion the impact on availability. Domestic pasta makers may also ramp up production, but industry experts warn they cannot easily fill the gap left by major Italian exporters.

What Happens Next

The White House stresses that the tariff remains a proposal, and affected companies have several months to participate in the review before any finding becomes final. There is no fixed date for a final decision. Until then, importers, grocers, and home cooks are bracing for an outcome that could reshape the U.S. pasta market for years to come.